Heat Pump Cost in Ontario: 2026 Homeowner Guide
Homeowners replacing a furnace want quieter comfort, steady temperatures, and predictable bills. Builders want clean specs that pass inspection and make clients happy on day one.
This guide explains how two-stage and modulating furnaces differ, when each makes sense, and how they pair with heat pumps in Durham Region.
What actually drives price (more than the brand)
In quotes across Ontario, the biggest swing factors aren’t the logo on the box; they are sizing, ductwork condition, electrical readiness, and site layout. A properly sized system with clean airflow and the right electrical circuit runs quieter, lasts longer, and avoids callbacks. That’s why we start with the home and finish with the equipment.
- Sizing & type: Central ducted vs ductless mini-split, single vs multi-zone, and whether you’re going hybrid (heat pump + furnace) for deep-cold backups.
- Ducts & airflow: Undersized returns or long, pinched runs raise static pressure and force upsizing or duct fixes (sometimes the smartest money you’ll spend).
- Electrical: Many 2–3 ton systems need 240V / 30–60A. Some panels are ready; others need a new breaker, wire run, or service upgrade.
- Placement & line set: Side-yard constraints, long line sets, or hard landscaping add labour.
- Controls & accessories: Dual-fuel thermostat, condensate pumps, snow stand, drain routing, surge protection—all small items that improve reliability.
Typical installed price ranges in Ontario
These are real-world ranges we see for code-compliant installs with commissioning. Homes with major duct/electrical work can sit above range; straightforward swaps sit near the low end.
- Ductless (single-zone) – approx. $4,000 – $9,000+ HST
Great for additions, sunrooms, or problem rooms. - Ductless (multi-zone, 2–4 heads) – approx. $5,500 – $20,000+ HST
Best when you don’t have ducts or want room-by-room control. - Central ducted (2–3 tons, cold-climate) – approx. $8,000 – $18,000+ HST
Whole-home solution using existing ducts (when airflow is right). - Hybrid add-on (pairing heat pump with a furnace) – approx. $7,500 – $15,000+ HST
Most popular in Durham Region: heat pump handles most days; furnace covers deep cold. - Possible add-ons (if needed): panel/breaker upgrade ($1,500 – $5,500), return-air fixes or trunk changes ($800 – $3,000+), long line-set / wall coring ($350 – $1,200), HRV/ERV tie-ins (varies).
“What will it cost me to run?”
A heat pump’s efficiency is expressed as COP (how many units of heat you get per unit of electricity). On typical winter days around the GTA, a quality cold-climate unit might average a COP ~2–3 above -5 °C and lower in deep cold. That’s why hybrid systems win here: you let the heat pump do the cheap work most days, and set a lockout so the furnace takes over when it’s truly cold.
Rather than a hard promise, we document your system at startup—airflow, static, and control settings—so you know it’s running where it should. If you want a tailored operating-cost comparison (your rates, your house), we’ll run it with your quote.
Rebates and financing
Ontario programs change regularly. Instead of duplicating our rebate post, we keep this section tight:
Rebates: See our current Heat Pump Rebates guide.
Payments: Spread costs with Financing; pair lower monthly costs with better comfort now.
How HVAC Zack quotes (and keeps installs quiet & clean)
We measure the home first (load targets, return paths, line-set route), flag any duct or electrical gotchas up front, and quote a system that meets your budget without breaking static pressure. On install day we build long transitions, set snow-smart outdoor placement, and leave you a commissioning report (airflow, static, temperature rise, control setup).
Start here:
Heat Pumps: https://hvaczack.ca/heat-pumps/
Furnace Install & Repair (for hybrids): https://hvaczack.ca/furnace-install-repair/
Installation walkthrough (Durham case): https://hvaczack.ca/heat-pump-installation-in-durham-region/
FAQs
Does every home need an electrical upgrade?
No. Many panels are fine with an added 30–60A circuit; some need an upgrade. We confirm during quoting.
Will a heat pump replace my furnace entirely?
In our climate, the best value is usually hybrid—heat pump most days, furnace for deep cold.
How long is install day?
Straight swaps can be a day. Full duct or electrical changes can take longer; we set dates with you up front.